Tornadoes Possible in Kentucky

Good afternoon.  A severe weather outbreak is occurring now and will continue to get worse as we head into the evening hours.  A powerful cold front is running into a warm and moist airmass in the Ohio Valley and wind parameters are favorable for bowing structures and tornado spin-ups inside the squall line.  It appears that this squall line will move across the area this evening and tonight and we will probably see damage along its path.  The current model data is pretty impressive looking with this line later today.

 

Here is the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.   Notice that areas west of I-65 are in the Moderate Risk zone.

 

 

 

Based upon the latest computer model data here is what I think will happen..

 

Areas out to our west around Paducah, KY will see the greatest chance of severe weather.  Western Kentucky will begin to be affected by the squall line as early as 18:00 tonight.  As the line moves eastward, it should reach the Elizabethtown area by around 22:00 tonight.  I think that it will maintain its severe nature as it moves eastward, and based upon forecast soundings I would say that a few tornadoes will occur with this activity.  Wind damage will be fairly widespread out in western KY, southern IN, and western TN.  By midnight (0:00EDT Friday) the line will advance into the Bluegrass of Kentucky and by this time it will be in a weakening phase.  All of the major computer models drastically decrease the severity of the squall line by the time it reaches the Lexington, KY area just after midnight.

 

There will still be isolated wind damage reports in central and eastern KY…but by far the worst of this storm will occur in western KY.  The rain shield will move across central KY Friday and should clear the area by noon on Friday.  It may be that flooding issues will be the worst part of this storm for the Bluegrass and also eastern KY.  Remember…flash flooding is the #1 killer of severe weather!

 

If I lived west of I-65 I would take the time now to prepare for possible tornadoes and wind damage.  Have a plan ready for your family in case you take a direct hit.  Remember to keep a NOAA weather radio on alert mode to keep you updated on the latest warnings.

 

Here is a graphic from the NWS office in Louisville, KY showing their forecast timing on when this line of storms should move into your area.

 

 

 

I will update via Twitter for the remainder of the afternoon and evening.  @WxinKY

 

 

-Shawn