Update 2 (10-April-2013 8:04EDT): SPC has now upgraded most of Kentucky to the 30% risk zone for severe storms tonight and into Thursday. Today, most of the damaging activity will be along and just west of the MS river. Tonight and Thursday, this activity will spread eastward into Kentucky and Tennessee. Here is the current outlook for Thursday:
Also, I wanted to show you the current upper air sounding from southern Ohio (this is the closest sounding to the Bluegrass region). A few things to note here. The freezing level is at only 11,000 ft. or so. Wet bulb zero heights are only around 9,000 ft. This means that large, damaging hail will be likely with these storms. Keep that in mind if you plan to be out in an automobile. Also, notice how the wind direction at the low levels is out of the southwest? But you go 15,000 ft. up in altitude and now the winds are strong out of the west. This is a classic, although not perfect, wind shear profile. This means that TORNADOES will be a good possibility with the strongest storms.
In addition to all this, winds will be very strong today ahead of the front and this may blow around trash cans and lawn furniture. Then after dark tonight all eyes will be on this system as it marches across Kentucky.
I urge everyone to keep the NOAA weather radios on and ready to alert you. Have a plan of action ready to go for your family. Spring is here and business is about to pick up.
Update: The Day 2 convective outlook makes it pretty clear that SPC is expecting damaging weather to approach the MS river valley and into western Kentucky tomorrow evening. This squall line will then transition into central Kentucky during the day Thursday, per the latest model data, and will be weakening as it does so.
Also, I wanted to show you the current upper air sounding from southern Ohio (this is the closest sounding to the Bluegrass region). A few things to note here. The freezing level is at only 11,000 ft. or so. Wet bulb zero heights are only around 9,000 ft. This means that large, damaging hail will be likely with these storms. Keep that in mind if you plan to be out in an automobile. Also, notice how the wind direction at the low levels is out of the southwest? But you go 15,000 ft. up in altitude and now the winds are strong out of the west. This is a classic, although not perfect, wind shear profile. This means that TORNADOES will be a good possibility with the strongest storms.
In addition to all this, winds will be very strong today ahead of the front and this may blow around trash cans and lawn furniture. Then after dark tonight all eyes will be on this system as it marches across Kentucky.
I urge everyone to keep the NOAA weather radios on and ready to alert you. Have a plan of action ready to go for your family. Spring is here and business is about to pick up.
Update: The Day 2 convective outlook makes it pretty clear that SPC is expecting damaging weather to approach the MS river valley and into western Kentucky tomorrow evening. This squall line will then transition into central Kentucky during the day Thursday, per the latest model data, and will be weakening as it does so.
I think that at this point, strong thundershowers with isolated damage reports will be found in the Bluegrass area of Kentucky on Thursday, but this does not appear to be a massive and widespread event for us. To our west is where the heavy duty action will be this go-around. Don't let your guard down, however. Keep those NOAA radios on and ready to alert you.
More info. coming with the 12Z model runs later today.
Previous discussion:
Well, we finally came out of that brutal March filled with nothing but winter weather and we are now into Spring for certain. As I mentioned in my April outlook, however, this warm-up is going to come at a price. Severe weather will start forming more frequently now and the first real episode looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday of this week.
I will have more details later, but for now it appears that the middle MS river valley and possibly back into the Plains will see a pretty healthy outbreak of storms tomorrow and on Wednesday. Many of these will become severe and cause damage. As the system moves east it will likely bring a squall line through Kentucky on Thursday. There is a possibility that some of the activity that affects our area could be on the strong to severe side as well, but differences in the model data are preventing me from saying for certain what we can expect at this time. The upper jet support is there, moisture is there, and the front looks to take on a neutral tilt…but instability is going to be the question. Time of day will make all the difference.
For now, bear in mind that Thursday could be a dangerous day in this part of the world and plan accordingly if you are going to be outdoors. I’ll update with more specific information once we get one or two more model runs of data to look at.
Shawn
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