January was a somewhat dull month. On this last day of the month, the average temperature at the Lexington official reporting station is 35.6F so far, which is a couple of degrees warmer than where we should be. Rainfall is 4.39" for the month, which is above average. Snowfall is only 0.5" which is well below average. So it looks like January is going to go down as a mild and wet month. Really the only serious action we saw weatherwise is what occurred yesterday.
Looking toward February, I think we're going to see a big change. The storm system that brought severe weather to the entire region yesterday has ushered in a pattern change that will likely carry us through the next few weeks. You can expect wintry conditions this weekend with blustery winds and occasional snow showers throughout the weekend. This cold air will stick around until probably Wednesday the 6th when another big storm system may try to form in the Plains and start it's trek toward the Ohio Valley. The GFS model shows that a repeat of what we saw yesterday is a possibility, with thunderstorms sweeping through the region on the following weekend, and then cold air returning around the 12th of the month. Check out the possible huge storm for the weekend after this coming one (the 10th):
The global teleconnections are all predicted to run slightly positive through these next couple of weeks. El Nino never materialized like we thought it was going to back in the late fall of 2012 and currently those conditions are running in the neutral phase. This all basically means that there are no strong signs for extremes in either direction for our weather in the eastern U.S. As a result, the official government outlooks for February 2013 are calling for average temperatures and average precipitation for us and I tend to agree. It'll be colder than what we saw in January, and we'll have an increased threat for storms and also snowfall throughout February.
In the winter time if you have a month that runs mild like January did, it is not uncommon at all to have the following month balance things out and run cold and more active. It's a good bet that we're about to see that unfold. By my count, the Anderson County schools have only had one snow day this year which is unusual. I think though that business is about to pick up weatherwise as we are now squarely in the middle of winter.
Before I go, I wanted to mention that yesterday's severe weather did spawn tornadoes in Kentucky. The closest one to Lawrenceburg was about 35 miles SSW of town, in Marion County. It is very important to always take tornado watches and severe thunderstorm watches seriously, and have a plan of action ready for your family in case you are placed under a warning. Severe weather DOES strike Kentucky in every month of the year.
-Shawn
Good to see talk of snow.
ReplyDeleteI must say if we continue to get the setups like this last one we need to look out. The tornados in the western part of the state and the very high wind and heavy rain here at my place in the east. Seems like we could see some more bad weather this spring.
On the note of the next system I would love to read some thoughts on this dynamic (the one around the 10th). It would really only take a little it would seem to have a storm like this push though with bad weather and then the cold air be with it enough to put down a huge snow.
Thanks for the thoughts and keep up the good work.
Yes, what's interesting is that this event yesterday produced tornadoes statewide. PAH office had two EF-2s and a 14 mile long microburst, LMK office had multiple tornadoes of EF-0 and EF-1 strength, and the JKL office in eastern KY recorded the first January tornado in their forecast area EVER.
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting thing is that exactly 5 years ago now, we had a severe weather outbreak around the 28th of January...and then a week later we had another outbreak that produced even more tornadoes than the first one. With the GFS model hinting at another juicy system coming in 8-9 days out, it's got my full attention I can assure you. It is very common for severe weather (both thunderstorm events and snow events of large magnitude) to occur in pairs during winter here, according to statistics.
Once we get inside 192 hours away from the next system we will start talking about it more. That's when the GFS model increases in resolution and it does a better job forecasting in the 5-7 day range.
For now, enjoy the off and on snow showers...they will occur all weekend long!