12Z Euro is in, and it's basically a perfect compromise of the NAM and GFS runs from today. The precip. field it shows looks just like the GFS (below)...but it's a little weaker in strength similar to the NAM (below). So all in all, this continues to look like a purely snow event for Lexington and surrounding counties, mostly during the day on Friday. Total accumulations should be in the 2-4" range. More updates tomorrow...
Previous discussion:
Here we are 36 hours from showtime, and the NAM and GFS models are still squabbling. The NAM subdues the system coming in Friday and keeps the associated precip. shield to our south. This would reduce snowfall in central KY to just flurries. GFS on the other hand still shows a good connection between the wave drifting in and weak low pressure to our north, and as a result it maintains a healthy precip. field for all of Kentucky.
Here is the NAM from 12Z today:
See how the wave just pushes to our south? Only the far southeast counties of Kentucky would get in on the action under this scenario. Now look at GFS:
It's precip. field is much larger. This would all be snow, as it appears surface temps. will be below freezing for the entire event.
So what does this mean? Well, I would like to see the ECMWF run before making a concrete call on this. It'll be viewable in about 2 hours. For now, I would think that the GFS solution is a little more plausible. My early call was for 3-5" of snow in the Bluegrass counties. I think at this point I'd drop down a notch and go for 2-4". Bottom line is that I still expect some snow, nothing major but at least some snow. And school cancellations are still a real possibility for Friday.
When the Euro model is out I'll take a peek and post an update later.
P.S. I have comments set up to be moderated. This is because of a select few who don't have any idea what they are talking about and just like to talk trash and stir the pot. But if you leave a comment, I will read it and I'll try to post it to the blog. Don't want anybody to think I'm ignoring you...I'm not. It's just that I'm a busy guy.
Take care and stop by later this afternoon. By the way, we are at the end of January and have ZERO snowfall on the board. We had one light ice event on the 15th. Yet, some weather guys are STILL beating that "arctic air!" "SNOW!" drum as loud as they can.. it never ends.
-Shawn
I hope you think I was not trying to stir the pot earlier...I genuinely appreciate the truth you are giving instead of the hype over and over again on the other blog. You saying snow Friday makes it much more believable.
ReplyDeleteI read you over on the other blog and miss your input. So I will ask here....are we looking at a Thursday night or during the day Friday arrival of whatever snow we get? For the record, I'm not a snow or winter lover by a long shot. I dread it so I grasp at negativity toward snow!
ReplyDeleteThis is looking like late Friday morning through Friday evening. Looks to be all snow for areas in and around Lexington. Southern KY could see some mixed precip. Doesn't look like a major event...but should be a nice way to usher in the weekend.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Kentucky Weather Center goes.. Chris apparently doesn't like it when other people speak the truth, call him out on B.S. forecasts, and generally try to bring some realistic thoughts to the discussion. Therefore, he has blocked me from his blog and Twitter page. I am NOT encouraging anyone to abandon his site...but you might want to also spread the word about this site as well. I think maybe it's good to see both sides.
Are you serious, he really blocked you? That's a shame really.
DeleteTo many people have drank the "Kool - Aid" over there and blindly follow whatever he says. He is now on two straight winters of "hype" that have led to nothing except for more hits on his blog. Why would he block you? Seems like a childish thing to do? Can he not accept genuine criticism? I never thought you overly negative towards Chris, unlike many posters were towards you. Other than Bubba G, no one else will even question anything that he says. Rather sad.....
ReplyDeleteLook at the stats...so far, Lexington has gotten LESS snowfall this season than we did last year! And last year was horrible! Yet... Chris continues to beat that drum. "Snow is coming! Arctic blast is coming! Save your children!". I am very thankful sometimes that I didn't stay with the television career... the fact that I am on my own means I don't have any reason to lie to people to increase ratings or bring in website traffic. I can, and do, just tell it like it is.
DeleteI posted a link to your site on my facebook. I like your honesty!
DeleteI think it is bad that he blocked him. But he was rude at times and really was insulting with using the words lying and such.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention, the "Kool-Aid" blog was right on quite a bit. I was in a decent snow in December. That happened. Then it warmed in January like was advised. Then, we hit the colder air for mid-January which was said would be mild and boring through January but there was still February. Since mid-January we have seen ice and some blow average highs. And if this snow pans out it seems that the forecast was pretty darn good.
What happens though is that the models, all of them, would show snow and then not and then back. The blog there would even show what the models where showing and would show GFS, NAM, EURO. Even if he posted that it was not set or take it with a grain of salt as it is a week out or such there was this group that jumped on it immediately. They would go on about the hype and such.
Anyway, I like reading more than one weather blog and get insights. I also tend to frequent many other weather sites. I do remember reading here about the "boring" January continuing in the second half as that was what the models were showing. And I assume that is why the forecasts on other sites were warmer for this period and were adjusted down as we moved closer.
Actually, even at the end of December when the AO and NAO were both forecast to go positive, he was STILL predicting a wild, snowy, and cold January...which obviously was not in the cards. Look at the stats.. we are above avg. temperature for the month, WAY below snowfall for the month and season, and about all you can say is that we've gotten a little above average rainfall. It has been a boring winter and a very boring January, to say the least. Yet...day after day after day reading his blog it's always "wild", and "crazy", and "supercharged pattern" etc. etc... he is clearly and obviously just trying to keep his readers interested. I am done with that crap. Weather people have a bad rep. as it is.. we don't need to throw fuel on the fire.
DeleteHonestly, I respect Chris and he is a very nice guy in person. I just couldn't stand reading that junk and knowing that he doesn't really believe what he's even writing.
Thanks, Shawn. I'm with you on the bs forcasts. I have been a reader of the blog for 3 years, post occasionly, and it's one let down after another. Now, I don't totally blame Chris, he doesn't have control over what mother nature hands us, however, he does have control over what he forcasts on his blog/tv. I guess with most of us winter lovers it's a frustration more than anything that we want snow so bad, but get let down over and over. Now, if a met knows his/her forcast is jank, then by all means that's willfully misleading and it makes me upset too! I truly appreciate your honest forcasts, whether hit or miss, I appreciate knowing your not going to hype me up for something that isn't going to happen. Again, thank you. Good luck with your endeavors, your blog and hopefully you'll pick up some appreciative traffic along. Good luck!
ReplyDeleteHe does stir the “snow is coming” pot quite a bit! I do read his blog daily but honestly find myself reading and relying more on the comments posted by others than his posts. Shawn, I’ve checked your blog probably 10+ times today already for an update,,, will you update soon?? I’m anxious to get an accurate spin on what’s happening with the forecast. Will Lexington schools have a snow day tomorrow,, Please say yes
ReplyDeleteThis is still looking like a 1-3" event for Lexington and surrounding areas. Not a major storm by any means...but at least it's snow, which is something we haven't seen much of at all this season. School closings? That's going to be a tricky call. Can't wait to see how they handle this timing...
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