Severe Weather in Kentucky Wednesday Morning

Update 22:30EST:

SPC is going to issue a new Tornado Watch for portions of central KY soon.  NWS Paducah is now issuing tornado warnings as the line is approaching their warning area.  The line is not losing any strength so far, thanks to a very strong low level jet.  The threat will continue into the wee hours of the morning in central KY.  Keep the NOAA radios on and stay safe!


Update 20:00EST:  

The Storm Prediction Center is considering a new weather watch box for western Kentucky.  This will likely be a Tornado Watch if it is issued.  The low level jet is forecast to increase to at least 70 knots, and this will allow the storms to remain strong as they enter Kentucky, despite the loss of daylight.



Update 11:45EST

The Hi-Res NAM run shows the squall line moving into central Kentucky around 4:00EST Wednesday morning.  Ahead of the main line, cells might form that could cause isolated damage or a brief tornado spin-up.  Take a look at the simulated radar, valid during the wee hours tomorrow morning:

Here is the  brand new tornado outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The 5% threat area has been shifted east to include more of Kentucky.  Here is the new wind damage outlook:

These higher probability areas have also been shifted east.  It now appears that western Kentucky is firmly in the zone where damage will occur.  They are now in the Moderate Risk zone.  Wind damage and tornado spin-ups inside the squall line are a very good bet for everybody west of I-65.  Take this seriously!  This has the potential to be a very deadly severe weather outbreak.

Across central Kentucky, we are in the Slight Risk zone for severe weather.  Even though our threat level is lower, everyone should still keep a close eye on the weather tonight.  This is particularly true because most people will be asleep when the main squall line moves through the Lexington vicinity.

A NOAA weather radio is a very good investment.  They can be bought for as little as $30 and it very well could save your life.  Make sure you have a plan in place, and your children are aware of what you will do if a tornado warning is issued for your location.

This is the point where we stop forecasting, and start "now-casting".  We'll start watching radar trends and alert people of impending danger.

I will likely not have an update again unless watch boxes are posted for Kentucky, which is a high probability I would say.  Take care and get ready for a lot of wind!

You can follow me @WXinKY on Twitter.  Also, a reminder that I do read comments and try to get them posted when I can.  Thanks for reading.

-Shawn

Previous discussion:

I will have a more in depth look at things this afternoon once I get a chance to go over the 12Z model runs from today.

For the time being, an outbreak of severe weather continues to look like a high probability for tonight and into tomorrow morning.  Everything is coming together just right for wind damage and tornadoes across a large area of the south, possibly including Kentucky.  My fear is that the evening news on Wednesday will be headlined with the aftermath.

I hope that everyone takes this seriously.  More details coming later…

Shawn