Check out the system quickly approaching from the north tonight:
There really aren’t many changes to talk about with today’s model runs. You can refer to the post from yesterday to see model images. The NAM runs from today are slightly stronger with the system tomorrow, but the ECMWF runs are slightly weaker. GFS is staying rock solid with its forecast.
So… this looks to be an all snow event for people along the WK/BG Parkways and I-64 in Kentucky. You’re looking at a 1-3” snowfall. This should begin around sunrise and should end during the late afternoon.
South of the parkways/interstate there will be a mix of snow and sleet. Some freezing rain is possible but I think sleet is more likely. Roadways may be slick, but this does not look like a significant accumulation of wintry precip. for the folks in the southern counties. Road crews should be able to handle this system just fine.
What’s going to be interesting is to see how the school districts handle this. Since the snow is forecast to begin during the post-dawn hours, will they go ahead and cancel school on the assumption that the forecast will pan out? Or will they go ahead and bring kids to school and see how it shakes out during the day? I’m interested to see how they handle this.
Beyond this snowy system on Friday, you’re looking at a dry but cold weekend. Highs should top out in the upper 20s under high pressure with no precip. falling.
The beginning of next week will usher in warmer conditions, but unsettled weather as another larger system develops to our west. The parent low may try to streak into the Lakes and drag a cold front toward Kentucky. Rain, with a few rumbles of thunder, will be possible for Tuesday.
Enjoy your weekend, and keep your fingers crossed for Friday’s system to be an over-achiever.
-Shawn
Nice blog Shawn. Was a big follower of yours on kyweathercenter. Thanks for a clear cut site without all the hype. I appreciate all the work Chris puts into his blog, but he overdoes and overstates every event that comes our way, and WATCH OUT if you disagree with him. Sorry you have been banned. Guess I have a new blog to check out daily! Thanks for your time and effort in putting this blog together for people who want honest, real straightforward weather opinions, without all the buildup and hype.
ReplyDeleteI was a fan of KWC until the drama started and I also realized no one can disagree with him. People will eventually get tired of his spotty forcasts and attitude that he's the only person in the world who can forcast weather and they will move on. It's sickening to sit and read 100 posts that's just one big long butt kissing session! Yuck. This will be my one stop weather forcast stop from now on! Go Shawn!!!
DeleteThank you Shawn!!
ReplyDeleteThanks Shawn. I took many met courses before my life went in a different direction. I now regret it somewhat. Great blog. I have bookmarked it and will include this site in my daily ritual.
ReplyDeleteThis is a tough decision for the school administrators. If they cancel school and this is not a big event, they will get criticized. On the other hand, if they go and things get slick during mid-morning/early afternoon, they will do an early dismissal and have buses out on the roads in the slick conditions. Parents will be up in arms with that.
ReplyDelete"GFS is staying rock solid with its forecast."
ReplyDeleteI always wonder about this. You can check the GFS and look at local forecasts and they are so close. But as you move towards the day they seem to always adjust and seem to come in line with other models more. I am positive the GFS did not have this storm for this area late last week while other models did. I am absolutely positive that the local forecasts were mostly discounting the other models as they had it warmer here. And they had no chance at anything, much less snow. As the days went on they adjusted downward and this coincided with the GFS changes.
It was like with the cold are outbreak recently. The forecasts at first called for warmer temperatures and I know some models called for the colder air. Then as we got within a day or so the forecasts change quit a bit. I know it is hard to forecast but this happens a lot around here. My husband keeps track of the changes and models and it really appears that the GFS is given heavy weight most of the time. I do understand, from my husband keeping track of the models and what they show, that no model is perfect.
I tell you it is amazing you guys can do so well with a forecast around here. Seems like it is just so hard to predict. All you Meteorologists deserve much praise for your efforts. Keep up the good work.
So glad to find that you have your site!! First, I want to thank you so very much for posting your thoughts for those of us who just want straightforward weather information without the hype, drama and otherwise general silly chatter!
ReplyDeleteI used to be a regular follower of the "other" site, but honestly, it seems as though it has just turned into one big fan site. I used to check it several times a day, but recently, I have found myself checking less and less regularly and frankly, being confused by what I was reading. It is refreshing to find that there are excellent options available to us!
I find it very sad that you have been banned from discussions there. It is truly their loss. From the look of your site, however, it would appear that you are one who has mastered the valuable art of turning the lemons of life into a wonderful glass of refreshing lemonade! :-) I really like what I see here and will be returning!
Thank you so much for keeping us updated. It is wonderful seeing MJ post here as well! I always would read his posts and appreciated his efforts to answer questions and to inform novice weather watchers such as myself as to what terms, models, etc meant. MJ, I hope that you continue to post here! I thank you as well for your time in helping keep us weather aware.
I will be spreading the word about this site to my friends who have also been expressing their disappointment with the other "option"! My prediction is that you will soon develop a strong following. I look forward to reading your thoughts in the coming days and weeks on the weather in Central Kentucky!