ICE in Kentucky?

Update:

GFS is coming in and it's showing surface temps. about 1 degree warmer than what the NAM shows.  It does show much warmer air aloft than the NAM, however.  It's becoming clear that surface temps. are going to be the name of the game tonight.  IF we can manage to stay below the magic 32 number at ground level, we've got big problems on our hands.  Let's watch closely...

Previous discussion:

Well let’s focus our attention on this weather system coming in tonight.  Oddly, the published forecasts haven’t really been mentioning much going on Wednesday morning.  But the models are indicating that it could be rather interesting.

Here is the brand new 12Z run of the NAM model for today, showing surface temperatures:

And here is the same map with the temperatures a few thousand feet up:

What you notice is that as the slug of moisture from the south is moving northward into Kentucky, temperatures are cooling to around freezing in the western Bluegrass counties.  This is interesting.

But what is even more interesting is that if you look closely, you’ll notice that temperatures aloft are slightly warmer than temperatures at the surface.  This is an example of “over-running” and it’s a setup that can lead to freezing rain.  ICE is a bad word around here, following two devastating ice storms in the past 10 years.

I don’t think at this point that we are looking at a devastating ice storm, but I DO think we are looking at a nasty winter weather event unfolding tonight.  Frankfort and Lawrenceburg are in the zone where it could get nasty.  Lexington may get in on the action also.  It’s the area east of I-65 and west of I-75 that needs to watch this closely.  We could see lots of school closings tomorrow.

I will take a peek at the 12Z GFS and Euro runs and update this afternoon.  For now, prepare for a nasty morning commute tomorrow in the Bluegrass.

-Shawn