I’m seeing a lot of local WX guys using this chart to call for a possible southeast snow even this week:
This is another maddening thing that they all seem to do. That is the 850mb chart, which shows temperatures approximately 5,000 ft. above the ground. Now, if you’re in a helicopter I suppose you would see snow in the southeast according to that chart. But if you are on the ground, walking or driving your car or sitting in your chair or doing whatever else you do to live on Earth’s surface, do you really care what’s going on 5,000 ft. in the air?
Take a look at the surface chart for the exact same time period:
See where the freezing line is? It’s all the way north of Kentucky. Even if the precipitation spread into the Ohio Valley, you still wouldn’t get an accumulating snowfall…MUCH LESS the southeastern states, according to this model run. It is important as you are reading posts from other meteorologists to make sure you know what you’re looking at. Most of them use the wrong maps to pick out weather features.
The 850mb charts ARE important when looking for freezing rain areas, etc. But you can’t use them alone when trying to forecast snow amounts.
Now, on to this “arctic outbreak” that is coming. Yes, it does appear that the time period around the 19th could usher in some colder air for Kentucky and the Ohio Valley. But, it does not appear right now that we are talking about below zero kind of arctic air. So it really won’t be that much different than the teens for lows we’ve already seen. And…just a few days later the warm air looks to lift back toward Kentucky as shown in today’s GFS runs:
So there you have it.. once again we see some weather guys trying to make the coming weeks out to be crazy and insane…and in actuality it’s just average run of the mill stuff for January. This is why you have to be careful about what you read on the Internet. J Take care and enjoy your week. We should see a few peeks of sunshine from time to time.
Shawn
Thanks for the update...it is maddening to read that garbage knowing it's bull. wanting fan mail, applaude section, and to be glorified for crappy and inaccurate forcasting is all you read on the internet and it's burns butts cause they know it's the truth!
ReplyDeleteThanks for telling it the way it is.i am about sick of some of the bigfoot sightings of the other blogs the socalled blog police,thanks
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments. I need to settle down and watch my tone. I just get really worked up when some of these guys are obviously feeding people what they want to hear just to increase web traffic. Weather people have a reputation as it is...we get made fun of as it is...we don't need certain weather people throwing fuel on the fire by making B.S. forecasts on purpose.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you 100%.
DeleteI tend to agree with your thinking here. The low levels do seem rather warm, but the models have been having some trouble with the low-level cold air of late...even the reliable NAM has been off. The later week system looks less of a threat. The turn to cold after the 20th still looks like a good bet, but it will likely end up being just cold and dry like typical arctic airmasses that get into the OV. The signals are strong as well that this cold will not linger around too long as some folks are suggesting.
ReplyDelete