Will this Boring January Weather Turn Around?

Friday afternoon update:

From the NWS Louisville:

Given a period of heavy wet rains Sun into Mon and
no real cold air behind this system, think that sfc temps may hover
around freezing in southern and eastern sections of central KY and
not much freezing of precip on contact will occur.  Therefore, will
include a wintry mix in the forecast Monday night, but there`s a
good chance that precip will end as plain rain.

Tues-Fri look dry as most zonal flow dominates the Midwest for the
rest of the long term period.  A shortwave passing across the
southern states may threaten to bring a small chance of light rain
to south central KY Thurs or Fri, but not confident enough to
include in the forecast at this time.

Temperatures will be mild for one more day on Sunday as most
locations reach the 50s to lower 60s for highs.  We`ll cool off into
the upper 30s and lower 40s for highs for the rest of the work week
with lows in the 20s.

Looks like they are basically seeing the same thing I'm seeing.

Previous update:

Ice storm Tuesday?  Maybe.  But probably not.  It’s starting to look now like the moisture will be gone before the cold air really gets entrenched.  This is the reason I said the other day that I wasn’t going to bite on the solution the models were showing since we were still 4-5 days out, and icing events are super hard to predict.  It takes the perfect over-running scenario to produce an ice storm and that’s just hard to latch onto at such an early interval.

Today’s GFS run shows the freezing line dropping into Kentucky on Tuesday, but the difference is that the low gets ejected out to the east coast in a more progressive flow.  This would drastically reduce the snow/ice threat across Kentucky.

The Euro is coming in now and it also takes us below freezing Tuesday, but it shows the precip. shield being pushed even farther to the east by that time.

So it is looking like we’re going to be dealing with plain rain throughout the weekend.  On Monday, we might be able to squeeze out some mixed precipitation and then by Tuesday the storm is pushing off to the east as the cold air filters in.

The remainder of next week looks mostly dry with average temperatures for this time of year.  The boring January weather looks to continue for at least another week.  We will start looking toward the end of the month now in hope of some changes.  I know a lot of folks would love to see some harsh winter weather move into the Ohio Valley.  The snow lovers are a tough crowd.

Take care and enjoy your day,

Shawn